Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Preparing the ground for the big Iranian operation

 War on Gaza: Pillar of Cloud, Pillar of Defence
The current operation in Gaza can be called 'the little southern Iranian operation,' since it's designed to paralyze Iran's power in Gaza.

Salman Masalha ||
Preparing the ground for the big Iranian operation

Many people have been tempted to link the Gaza operation and the upcoming election. Even though war is sometimes a way to avoid dealing with domestic problems, the smoke that reached the Gaza sky this week wasn't connected to the Israeli election. Instead, one could view the attack on Gaza as part of a new plan, a master plan that turns its eyes east to Iran's nuclear program.

To understand this scenario, let's go back to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's comments and that famous sketch of a bomb at the podium of the UN General Assembly. By next spring, or at most next summer, the Iranians will enrich uranium to a medium level and enter the final stage, Netanyahu said. From there it's a few months or maybe only a few weeks until they have enough enriched uranium for their first atomic bomb. With a red magic marker he drew a line on the sketch and said that if there is a clear red line, Iran will pull back. That will give us more time to stop the Iranians from attaining nuclear weapons.

The early election is also closely linked to Netanyahu's red line at the United Nations. The election had been due next November, but Netanyahu, who sees events in the region on a messianic scale, wanted to reach the stage he marked in red, when he could make a difficult decision on Iran while being free of election considerations. This then is the real reason for bringing the election forward.

In this context, it's important to remember that the ideas of Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak aren't very different. Both see what's happening in the region and consider Israel "a villa in the jungle." They remain a close pair both politically and analytically.

The Iranian story remains at the top of their agenda. After all, Barak has said more than once that "we're preparing for that" - he has even forecast the number of dead: "War is no picnic but under no scenario will there be 50,000, 5,000 or even 500 dead."

From where does his analytical mind take these forecasts on the number of Israeli dead in the big operation against Iran that we're preparing for, as he has said? Obviously no one in Israel contends that Barak lacks a military understanding. Also, when we consider that no one depends solely on anti-missile defense like Iron Dome, despite its strong performance, there has to be another military plan in the analytical drawer.

It's possible the answer to this question is tied to the attack on Gaza. We must listen closely to Netanyahu's words: "Sooner or later, Iran's terror base in Gaza will be uprooted .... Gaza is Iran's forward position," he told the Knesset in March. "I'm not willing to put up with that, and no level-headed leader would accept that."

Therefore, the current operation can be called "the little southern Iranian operation," since it's designed to paralyze Iran's southern wing. The next operation will be "the little northern Iranian operation ": It will try to destroy Iran's Lebanon wing.

In this way, we reach Netanyahu's red line, the stage of a decision on "the big Iranian operation" - when Israel is free of the missile threat from the wings. That's apparently the plan of the Netanyahu-Barak duo.
Published: Opinions-Haaretz, Nov. 20, 2012
For Hebrew, press here


Facebook comments:
Middle East
  • The Arab world's quagmire

    Only a society that can engage in introspection and self-examination can emerge from its dark past and march confidently to a different future. Otherwise, it will continue to sink into the same marshy swamp.

    Read more

    A Feeble Middle East

    The West learned on its own flesh that this region conducts itself by other codes. Iran has continued to entrench its standing by means of its religious ideology. The toppling of Saddam Hussein shattered the illusion of the existence of a unifying “Iraqi identity” and gave an encouraging shot in the arm to Iran, which is forging ahead.

    Read more

  • The decay in the Arab world

    With great sadness, it can be said that in the absence of a sane civil alternative, the Arab world will continue along this path.

    Read more

    Neither Arab nor Spring

    The vicissitudes that have, for some reason, been collectively dubbed the "Arab Spring" are neither Arab nor Spring. One can say that they are actually living proof of the identity crisis and reverberating bankruptcy of Arab nationalism.

    Read more

  • another title

Israel - Palestine
  • Our troubles come from us

    And so we have reached a situation in which every Arab is concerned with his own problems and everyone talks about what preoccupies him personally – that is, his own troubles.

    Read more

  • Never-ending tragedy

    The Israeli right, in all its forms, wants exclusively Jewish control over all of the Land of Israel. To the Palestinians who live in this space, it promises residency – temporary, of course, on condition that they keep their heads down, accept their designated status and behave accordingly.

    Read more
  • Solomon’s Mosque

    Religion, every religion, is the No. 1 enemy of nationalism. But under conditions of tension, such as tribal warfare, these polar opposites combine into a toxic soup that consumes all common sense.

    Read more

  • They see not, nor know

    The term "neutralize" is very popular with people who have served in the security and expulsion forces. The question to be asked is, What did the poet who spoke of "neutralization" mean in this plan?

    Read more

    For Jews only

    From the moment the pundits followed in the footsteps of the politicians, both large and small, they carried this noxious melody everywhere. They were part of legitimizing the illegitimate in Israeli politics.

    Read more

  • With yearning soul

    The Zionism that aspired to establish a "Jewish home" in the Jews' "ancient homeland" did not take into consideration the fact that the land was not empty. It thus adopted the principle of population transfer, based on the same ancient biblical tradition.

    Read more

    Rabbis of the Dry Bones

    Racism surfaces when a society loses its self-confidence and turns to seeking ways to defend itself against what is different and perceived as increasingly threatening.

    Read more

  • الحلم

    أنّي في سجن جدران بيضاء
    حيث لا يعرفني أحدٌ، وأصواتٌ
    تختفي في الرّدهات، وأضواء تستنشقُ
    جمجمتي اللّاهثة.
    تتمة الكلام

Press photo to Email



Site Archive


  • The pit and the pendulum

    In those days, we did not drink four goblets of wine, because everything that gladdens the human heart is not a part of our custom.

    Read more

  • Welcome Back to History

    Islam, like other imperialist ideologies, still needs enemies to flourish. Enemies have served Islam in the past as fuel for its wagons. Without enemies Islam declines and stagnates...

    Read more

  • another title

  • Balkrishna Sama

    Man Is God

    He who loves flowers, has a tender heart.
    he who cannot pluck their blooms,
    has a heart that's noble.

    Read more

  • Martin Niemöller

    First They Came

    First they came for the Communists
    And I did not speak out
    Because I was not a Communist.
    Then they came for the Socialist
    And I did not speak out
    Because I was not a Socialist.

    Read More

  • Salman Masalha

    The Song About the Child

    Boston Gospel Choir

    Text: Salman Masalha
    Composer: Stephen Feigenbaum